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PMPCAPM

Independent Estimates

Independent estimates are cost or price benchmarks developed by the buyer or a third party to serve as a check against seller-proposed pricing during procurement.

Explanation

Independent estimates provide the buyer with a baseline for evaluating whether seller proposals are reasonable. The buying organization or an external consultant develops an estimate of expected costs before receiving seller proposals. This estimate is then compared against actual proposals to identify significant variances that may indicate misunderstandings in scope, unrealistic pricing, or an uncompetitive marketplace.

The independent estimate should be developed using the same scope of work and assumptions that will be provided to sellers. Sources for developing the estimate include historical data from similar procurements, published pricing guides, expert judgment, and parametric estimation techniques.

If there is a significant difference between the independent estimate and seller proposals, the buyer should investigate the cause. A seller price substantially below the estimate may indicate that the seller misunderstood the scope or is "buying in" with an unsustainably low price. A price substantially above may suggest the SOW is unclear, the market is uncompetitive, or the seller has priced in excessive risk.

Key Points

  • Developed by the buyer or a third party before receiving proposals
  • Serves as a benchmark for evaluating proposal pricing
  • Significant variances warrant investigation
  • Used as a tool/technique in Conduct Procurements

Exam Tip

Independent estimates are prepared before proposals are received to provide an unbiased benchmark. If a seller's price is significantly different from the independent estimate, investigate the gap before awarding.

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