CAPM Practice: Demonstrate an understanding of a project management plan schedule

Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the deterministic critical path underestimates actual duration risk — there is only a 30% chance of meeting the 120-day estimate. To have 80% confidence, 140 days is needed. The appropriate response is either to: (1) set the baseline at 140 days with appropriate contingency, or (2) acknowledge the risk with the sponsor and add a schedule contingency reserve of 20 days, documenting the risk explicitly.

**Why not B:** Cancelling the project because of a 30% probability is an overreaction. Monte Carlo simulation is a risk analysis tool designed to inform planning decisions, not a pass/fail test. The appropriate response is to adjust the schedule or add contingency, not abandon the project.

**Why not C:** Setting the baseline at the deterministic 120-day critical path ignores the simulation's findings. A 30% probability of completion means there is a 70% chance of missing that date, making it an unreliable baseline that would likely result in schedule overruns.

**Why not D:** Dismissing the Monte Carlo simulation as wrong contradicts sound risk management practice. The simulation uses probabilistic analysis to account for real-world uncertainty, and its results should inform planning rather than be ignored in favor of a single deterministic estimate.