CAPM Practice: Demonstrate an understanding of a project management plan schedule
Question 9 of 85 in Demonstrate an understanding of a project management plan schedule
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Correct answer: (Optimistic + 4 × Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Explanation
The PERT formula is: Expected Duration = (O + 4M + P) / 6, where O = optimistic, M = most likely, and P = pessimistic. This weighted average gives four times the weight to the most likely estimate and accounts for risk and uncertainty by incorporating best-case and worst-case scenarios into a single estimate.
**Why not A:** The formula (Most Likely x 3) / (Optimistic + Pessimistic) is not a recognized estimating formula in project management. It does not properly weight the three estimates and would produce inaccurate duration estimates.
**Why not B:** The simple average (O + M + P) / 3 is the triangular distribution formula, not the PERT formula. PERT specifically weights the most likely estimate four times more heavily than the optimistic and pessimistic estimates to produce a beta distribution.
**Why not C:** The formula (O + P) / 2 calculates a simple midpoint between the optimistic and pessimistic estimates, completely ignoring the most likely estimate. This approach fails to account for the probability distribution of the activity duration.
Key Concept
This question covers Demonstrate an understanding of a project management plan schedule under Demonstrate an understanding of a project management plan schedule (Predictive, Plan-Based Methodologies).
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